Community incidence patterns drive the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and alter intervention impacts in a high-risk institutional setting.

Optimization of control measures for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in high-risk institutional settings (e.g., prisons, nursing homes, or military bases) depends on how transmission dynamics in the broader community influence outbreak risk locally. We calibrated an individual-based transmission model of a military training camp to the number of RT-PCR positive trainees throughout 2020 and 2021. The predicted number of infected new arrivals closely followed adjusted national incidence and increased early outbreak risk after accounting for vaccination coverage, masking compliance, and virus variants. Outbreak size was strongly correlated with the predicted number of off-base infections among staff during training camp. In addition, off-base infections reduced the impact of arrival screening and masking, while the number of infectious trainees upon arrival reduced the impact of vaccination and staff testing. Our results highlight the importance of outside incidence patterns for modulating risk and the optimal mixture of control measures in institutional settings.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among recruits in a US Army training environment: a brief report.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, preventive measures were implemented to mitigate the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among 600-700 recruits arriving weekly at a basic combat training (BCT) facility in the southern United States. Trainees were sorted into companies and platoons (cocoons) at arrival, tested, quarantined for 14 days with daily temperature and respiratory-symptom monitoring and retested before release into larger groups for training where symptomatic testing was conducted. Nonpharmaceutical measures, such as masking, and social distancing, were maintained throughout quarantine and BCT. We assessed for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the quarantine milieu. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs were collected at arrival and at the end of quarantine and blood specimens at both timepoints and at the end of BCT. Epidemiological characteristics were analyzed for transmission clusters identified from whole-genome sequencing of NP samples. RESULTS: Among 1403 trainees enrolled from 25 August to 7 October 2020, epidemiological analysis identified three transmission clusters (n = 20 SARS-CoV-2 genomes) during quarantine, which spanned five different cocoons. However, SARS-CoV-2 incidence decreased from 2.7% during quarantine to 1.5% at the end of BCT; prevalence at arrival was 3.3%. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest layered SARS-CoV-2 mitigation measures implemented during quarantine minimized the risk of further transmission in BCT.